Friday, October 17, 2008

The myth of the Bradley Effect

Apparently the Bradley effect is just not a thing. Tom Bradley ran for California governor in 1982, was leading in the polls, and lost. The way people explained this away was that white people were too ashamed to admit they didn't vote for the black candidate.

A person close to the action says that with ten days to go, Bradley stopped campaigning because he was so ahead and sure he would win. The Republican candidate never stopped campaigning, plus Republicans really worked hard with people using absentee ballots, which don't get exit polls.

Thus, Bradley lost after all the absentee ballots were counted. It was not voodoo voter magic, but completely explainable.

Now we can stop freaking out, right?

No comments: